The latest report from Fitch Solutions predicts a win for John Mahama and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the upcoming December 2024 general elections.
“We anticipate that the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC), led by former President John Mahama, will win Ghana’s December 2024 elections”, Fitch noted in its latest Business Monitor Online.
Overall, the report indicates a shift in political dynamics in Ghana as the NDC emerges as the frontrunner for the upcoming general elections. This reflects the impact of economic concerns and potential policy implications on the country’s political landscape.
The shift in power is attributed to rising perceptions of economic mismanagement in Ghana, driven by persistently high inflation and weakened living standards.
Mr.John Mahama
“Our forecast is informed by the incumbent NPP’s waning popularity, attributed to rising popular perceptions of economic mismanagement and the erosion of real household incomes over the past two years.”
Notably, inflation has averaged 40.3%, the highest rate since 1996, due to the sharp depreciation of the Ghanaian cedi against the US dollar.
These economic concerns are expected to dominate the December vote decision, with a survey by Global Info Analytics revealing that 65% of respondents cited the economy as their foremost concern.
The report also highlights that existing policy proposals, such as the anti-homosexuality bill and President Nana Akufo-Addo’s plan to end visa entry requirements for all Africans by the end of 2024, are unlikely to sway public opinion in favour of the NPP.
The Ghanaian business sector has heavily criticized the president’s attempt to boost local production and attract investment through an import restriction bill, which could further undermine the party’s prospects in the forthcoming elections.
Fitch believes that the NPP and NDC will face a minimal threat from third-party candidates. The ability of third-party candidates to sway the vote is constrained by the major parties’ entrenched financial and organizational advantages.
The report also emphasises the expectation of social stability and a peaceful transition of power in December, given Ghana’s track record of strong democratic institutions and minimal election irregularities.
Furthermore, improvements in macroeconomic conditions, such as reducing inflation and a more stable exchange rate, are expected to diminish the potential for public dissent.
However, potential approval of Ghana’s proposed anti-homosexuality legislation could adversely impact relations with the West, including the IMF.
Additionally, any constraints on receiving military assistance from the US could pose a risk to Ghana’s ability to address the threat of terrorism spreading from the Sahel, particularly affecting the less developed northern region.
Story by Stan Xoese Dogbe [stan.dogbe@gmail.com]
